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Cagliari vs Fiorentina

Sat 13 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Cagliari win: 28.1%

Draw: 38.2%

Fiorentina win: 33.7%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.74

More corners: Cagliari (55.0% home / 45.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Fiorentina

Yes

Probability Fiorentina wins or draws: 73.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Fiorentina win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.