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Cagliari vs Genoa

Sat 02 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 17 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Cagliari win: 29.8%

Draw: 39.6%

Genoa win: 30.6%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.55

More corners: Cagliari (61.6% home / 38.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Genoa

Yes

Probability Genoa wins or draws: 74.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Draw Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 31%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Cagliari (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Genoa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.