← Back to fixtures

Cagliari vs Milan

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Cagliari win: 22.7%

Draw: 29.5%

Milan win: 47.8%

Predicted: Milan

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.45

More corners: Milan (47.3% home / 52.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Milan

Yes

Probability Milan wins or draws: 78.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Milan Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 30%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Milan win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (79.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.