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Cagliari vs Monza

Sat 24 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 33 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Cagliari win: 45.4%

Draw: 35.7%

Monza win: 19.0%

Predicted: Cagliari

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.75

More corners: Cagliari (66.3% home / 33.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Cagliari

Yes

Probability Cagliari wins or draws: 83.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Cagliari Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 36%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Cagliari (more corners) (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Cagliari win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (84.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.