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Cagliari vs Roma

Sat 29 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 38 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Cagliari win: 16.3%

Draw: 29.2%

Roma win: 54.4%

Predicted: Roma

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.88

More corners: Roma (37.7% home / 62.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Roma

Yes

Probability Roma wins or draws: 81.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Roma Clearest lean of the available outcomes (54% vs next-best 29%). (54.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (55.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Roma (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Roma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (81.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.