← Back to fixtures

Como vs Lecce

Sat 02 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 17 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Como win: 68.2%

Draw: 20.0%

Lecce win: 11.8%

Predicted: Como

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 64.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 61.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.94

More corners: Como (77.2% home / 22.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Como

Yes

Probability Como wins or draws: 84.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Como Clearest lean of the available outcomes (68% vs next-best 20%). (68.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (61.0% model probability) High

Corners Como (more corners) (77.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Como win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (84.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.