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Como vs Parma

Sun 13 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Como win: 69.9%

Draw: 18.4%

Parma win: 11.8%

Predicted: Como

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.26

More corners: Como (77.4% home / 22.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Como

Yes

Probability Como wins or draws: 85.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Como Clearest lean of the available outcomes (70% vs next-best 18%). (70.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Corners Como (more corners) (77.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Como win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (85.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.