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Fiorentina vs Cagliari

Sat 05 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Fiorentina win: 38.3%

Draw: 35.1%

Cagliari win: 26.6%

Predicted: Fiorentina

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 41.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.43

More corners: Fiorentina (53.8% home / 46.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Fiorentina

Yes

Probability Fiorentina wins or draws: 80.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Fiorentina win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (80.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.