← Back to fixtures

Fiorentina vs Milan

Sat 10 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 31 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Fiorentina win: 25.3%

Draw: 31.4%

Milan win: 43.3%

Predicted: Milan

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.96

More corners: Milan (41.9% home / 58.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Milan

Yes

Probability Milan wins or draws: 75.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Milan Clearest lean of the available outcomes (43% vs next-best 31%). (43.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Milan (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Milan win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.