← Back to fixtures

Fiorentina vs Monza

Sat 22 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 37 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Fiorentina win: 48.3%

Draw: 34.0%

Monza win: 17.7%

Predicted: Fiorentina

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.6%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 45.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.58

More corners: Fiorentina (63.8% home / 36.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Fiorentina

Yes

Probability Fiorentina wins or draws: 84.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Fiorentina Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 34%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Fiorentina (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Fiorentina win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (84.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.