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Fiorentina vs Napoli

Sun 20 Sep 2026, 10:30 UTC · Round 5 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Fiorentina win: 19.0%

Draw: 28.9%

Napoli win: 52.1%

Predicted: Napoli

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.44

More corners: Napoli (35.1% home / 64.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Napoli

Yes

Probability Napoli wins or draws: 75.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Napoli Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 29%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Corners Napoli (more corners) (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Napoli win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.