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Frosinone vs Bologna

Tue 05 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Frosinone win: 31.0%

Draw: 27.9%

Bologna win: 41.1%

Predicted: Bologna

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.41

More corners: Frosinone (55.4% home / 44.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bologna

Yes

Probability Bologna wins or draws: 74.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bologna Clearest lean of the available outcomes (41% vs next-best 31%). (41.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bologna win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.