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Frosinone vs Cagliari

Sat 22 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 37 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Frosinone win: 39.0%

Draw: 30.5%

Cagliari win: 30.4%

Predicted: Frosinone

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.65

More corners: Frosinone (58.3% home / 41.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Cagliari

Yes

Probability Cagliari wins or draws: 71.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Frosinone Clearest lean of the available outcomes (39% vs next-best 30%). (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Corners Frosinone (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Cagliari win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.