← Back to fixtures

Frosinone vs Fiorentina

Sat 13 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 24 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Frosinone win: 37.6%

Draw: 28.2%

Fiorentina win: 34.2%

Predicted: Frosinone

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.98

More corners: Frosinone (60.3% home / 39.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Fiorentina

Yes

Probability Fiorentina wins or draws: 73.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Frosinone (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Fiorentina win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.