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Frosinone vs Genoa

Sat 10 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 31 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Frosinone win: 40.1%

Draw: 30.5%

Genoa win: 29.4%

Predicted: Frosinone

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.66

More corners: Frosinone (66.1% home / 33.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Genoa

Yes

Probability Genoa wins or draws: 72.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Frosinone Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 30%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Frosinone (more corners) (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Genoa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.