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Frosinone vs Lecce

Tue 27 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 9 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Frosinone win: 47.2%

Draw: 29.1%

Lecce win: 23.8%

Predicted: Frosinone

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.88

More corners: Frosinone (68.7% home / 31.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Frosinone

Yes

Probability Frosinone wins or draws: 72.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Frosinone Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 29%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Frosinone (more corners) (69.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Frosinone win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.