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Frosinone vs Milan

Sat 23 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 21 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Frosinone win: 30.6%

Draw: 24.5%

Milan win: 44.9%

Predicted: Milan

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.84

More corners: Milan (49.8% home / 50.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Milan

Yes

Probability Milan wins or draws: 76.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Milan Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 31%). (45.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Milan win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (77.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.