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Frosinone vs Monza

Sat 13 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Frosinone win: 58.4%

Draw: 24.7%

Monza win: 16.9%

Predicted: Frosinone

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.46

More corners: Frosinone (69.8% home / 30.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Frosinone

Yes

Probability Frosinone wins or draws: 81.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Frosinone Clearest lean of the available outcomes (58% vs next-best 25%). (58.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Frosinone (more corners) (70.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Frosinone win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (81.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.