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Frosinone vs Napoli

Sat 27 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 26 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Frosinone win: 24.7%

Draw: 23.2%

Napoli win: 52.1%

Predicted: Napoli

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.23

More corners: Napoli (45.8% home / 54.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Napoli

Yes

Probability Napoli wins or draws: 78.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Napoli Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 25%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Napoli win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.