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Frosinone vs Parma

Sat 28 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Frosinone win: 47.2%

Draw: 28.6%

Parma win: 24.3%

Predicted: Frosinone

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.03

More corners: Frosinone (68.8% home / 31.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Parma

Yes

Probability Parma wins or draws: 73.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Frosinone Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 29%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Frosinone (more corners) (69.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Parma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.