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Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Frosinone win: 39.4%

Draw: 30.0%

Sassuolo win: 30.5%

Predicted: Frosinone

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.0

More corners: Frosinone (62.6% home / 37.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sassuolo

Yes

Probability Sassuolo wins or draws: 71.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Frosinone Clearest lean of the available outcomes (39% vs next-best 30%). (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Frosinone (more corners) (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sassuolo win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.