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Genoa vs Lazio

Sat 27 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 26 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Genoa win: 28.4%

Draw: 38.2%

Lazio win: 33.4%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 45.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.56

More corners: Lazio (49.5% home / 50.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lazio

Yes

Probability Lazio wins or draws: 71.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lazio win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.