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Genoa vs Monza

Tue 05 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Genoa win: 45.7%

Draw: 36.4%

Monza win: 17.9%

Predicted: Genoa

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 45.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.69

More corners: Genoa (66.3% home / 33.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Genoa

Yes

Probability Genoa wins or draws: 84.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Genoa Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 36%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Genoa (more corners) (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Genoa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (84.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.