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Genoa vs Roma

Sat 13 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Genoa win: 17.0%

Draw: 30.8%

Roma win: 52.2%

Predicted: Roma

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 55.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.04

More corners: Roma (35.4% home / 64.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Roma

Yes

Probability Roma wins or draws: 76.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Roma Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 31%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Roma (more corners) (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Roma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (77.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.