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Genoa vs Udinese

Sat 19 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Genoa win: 29.0%

Draw: 40.5%

Udinese win: 30.5%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.9%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.66

More corners: Genoa (53.0% home / 47.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Udinese

Yes

Probability Udinese wins or draws: 71.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Draw Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 30%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Udinese win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.