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Juventus vs Fiorentina

Sat 24 Apr 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 33 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Juventus win: 62.9%

Draw: 22.0%

Fiorentina win: 15.1%

Predicted: Juventus

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.58

More corners: Juventus (75.8% home / 24.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Juventus

Yes

Probability Juventus wins or draws: 79.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Juventus Clearest lean of the available outcomes (63% vs next-best 22%). (63.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Juventus (more corners) (76.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Juventus win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (80.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.