← Back to fixtures

Juventus vs Genoa

Sat 16 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Juventus win: 63.8%

Draw: 22.0%

Genoa win: 14.2%

Predicted: Juventus

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.13

More corners: Juventus (81.1% home / 18.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Juventus

Yes

Probability Juventus wins or draws: 82.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Juventus Clearest lean of the available outcomes (64% vs next-best 22%). (64.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Corners Juventus (more corners) (81.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Juventus win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (83.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.