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Juventus vs Milan

Sun 06 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 3 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Juventus win: 56.9%

Draw: 21.9%

Milan win: 21.2%

Predicted: Juventus

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 55.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.12

More corners: Juventus (67.3% home / 32.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Juventus

Yes

Probability Juventus wins or draws: 71.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Juventus Clearest lean of the available outcomes (57% vs next-best 22%). (57.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Juventus (more corners) (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Juventus win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.