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Juventus vs Roma

Sat 06 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 27 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Juventus win: 32.5%

Draw: 34.9%

Roma win: 32.6%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.96

More corners: Juventus (61.8% home / 38.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Roma

Yes

Probability Roma wins or draws: 67.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (35.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Juventus (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Roma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.