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Lazio vs Fiorentina

Sat 29 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 38 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lazio win: 35.7%

Draw: 34.7%

Fiorentina win: 29.6%

Predicted: Lazio

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 48.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.55

More corners: Lazio (59.8% home / 40.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lazio

Yes

Probability Lazio wins or draws: 73.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Corners Lazio (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lazio win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.