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Lecce vs Bologna

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 6 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lecce win: 21.6%

Draw: 30.6%

Bologna win: 47.8%

Predicted: Bologna

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.8%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.21

More corners: Bologna (41.4% home / 58.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bologna

Yes

Probability Bologna wins or draws: 74.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bologna Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 31%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Bologna (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bologna win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.