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Lecce vs Cagliari

Sat 01 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 34 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lecce win: 29.4%

Draw: 34.1%

Cagliari win: 36.5%

Predicted: Cagliari

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.0%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 46.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.34

More corners: Cagliari (50.0% home / 50.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Cagliari

Yes

Probability Cagliari wins or draws: 70.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Cagliari win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.