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Lecce vs Frosinone

Sat 20 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 25 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lecce win: 30.4%

Draw: 37.2%

Frosinone win: 32.3%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.55

More corners: Frosinone (46.8% home / 53.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Frosinone

Yes

Probability Frosinone wins or draws: 69.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (37.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Frosinone win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.