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Lecce vs Juventus

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lecce win: 11.6%

Draw: 21.8%

Juventus win: 66.6%

Predicted: Juventus

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.92

More corners: Juventus (30.8% home / 69.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Juventus

Yes

Probability Juventus wins or draws: 82.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Juventus Clearest lean of the available outcomes (67% vs next-best 22%). (67.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Corners Juventus (more corners) (69.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Juventus win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (82.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.