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Lecce vs Monza

Sun 13 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lecce win: 44.3%

Draw: 34.3%

Monza win: 21.4%

Predicted: Lecce

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.4%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 44.2%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.53

More corners: Lecce (60.0% home / 40.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Lecce

Yes

Probability Lecce wins or draws: 79.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Lecce Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 34%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Lecce (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Lecce win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (80.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.