← Back to fixtures

Lecce vs Udinese

Sat 16 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 20 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Lecce win: 26.9%

Draw: 35.2%

Udinese win: 37.8%

Predicted: Udinese

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.1%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 47.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.34

More corners: Udinese (43.7% home / 56.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Udinese

Yes

Probability Udinese wins or draws: 73.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Udinese win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.