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Milan vs Fiorentina

Tue 05 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 18 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Milan win: 48.5%

Draw: 33.0%

Fiorentina win: 18.5%

Predicted: Milan

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.65

More corners: Milan (64.1% home / 35.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Milan

Yes

Probability Milan wins or draws: 77.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Milan Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 33%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Corners Milan (more corners) (64.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Milan win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.