← Back to fixtures

Milan vs Roma

Sat 15 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 36 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Milan win: 27.0%

Draw: 38.8%

Roma win: 34.2%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 54.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.34

More corners: Roma (41.7% home / 58.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Roma

Yes

Probability Roma wins or draws: 70.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Roma (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Roma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.