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Monza vs Atalanta

Sat 07 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Monza win: 22.1%

Draw: 25.7%

Atalanta win: 52.2%

Predicted: Atalanta

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.85

More corners: Atalanta (26.0% home / 74.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Atalanta

Yes

Probability Atalanta wins or draws: 78.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Atalanta Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 26%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Atalanta (more corners) (74.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Atalanta win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.