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Monza vs Cagliari

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Monza win: 25.4%

Draw: 29.6%

Cagliari win: 45.1%

Predicted: Cagliari

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.45

More corners: Cagliari (35.1% home / 64.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Cagliari

Yes

Probability Cagliari wins or draws: 72.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Cagliari Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 30%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Corners Cagliari (more corners) (65.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Cagliari win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.