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Monza vs Genoa

Sat 06 Mar 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 27 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Monza win: 26.5%

Draw: 29.8%

Genoa win: 43.8%

Predicted: Genoa

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 50.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.7

More corners: Genoa (39.5% home / 60.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Genoa

Yes

Probability Genoa wins or draws: 73.5%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Genoa Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 30%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Genoa (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Genoa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.