← Back to fixtures

Monza vs Roma

Sat 30 Jan 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 22 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Monza win: 16.0%

Draw: 25.5%

Roma win: 58.5%

Predicted: Roma

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.18

More corners: Roma (24.2% home / 75.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Roma

Yes

Probability Roma wins or draws: 79.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Roma Clearest lean of the available outcomes (58% vs next-best 26%). (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Roma (more corners) (76.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Roma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (80.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.