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Monza vs Udinese

Sat 29 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Monza win: 24.0%

Draw: 28.9%

Udinese win: 47.1%

Predicted: Udinese

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 52.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.89

More corners: Udinese (32.4% home / 67.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Udinese

Yes

Probability Udinese wins or draws: 77.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Udinese Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 29%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Corners Udinese (more corners) (68.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Udinese win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.