← Back to fixtures

Napoli vs Como

Sun 30 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Napoli win: 37.8%

Draw: 30.3%

Como win: 31.9%

Predicted: Napoli

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 53.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.72

More corners: Napoli (56.8% home / 43.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Napoli

Yes

Probability Napoli wins or draws: 67.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Napoli win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.