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Napoli vs Milan

Sat 12 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 15 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Napoli win: 51.9%

Draw: 26.2%

Milan win: 21.9%

Predicted: Napoli

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.97

More corners: Napoli (62.4% home / 37.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Napoli

Yes

Probability Napoli wins or draws: 71.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Napoli Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 26%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Corners Napoli (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Napoli win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.