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Napoli vs Monza

Sat 08 May 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 35 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Napoli win: 68.2%

Draw: 21.4%

Monza win: 10.4%

Predicted: Napoli

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.34

More corners: Napoli (77.3% home / 22.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Napoli

Yes

Probability Napoli wins or draws: 86.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Napoli Clearest lean of the available outcomes (68% vs next-best 21%). (68.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Napoli (more corners) (77.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Napoli win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (86.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.