← Back to fixtures

Napoli vs Roma

Sat 24 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 8 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Napoli win: 34.5%

Draw: 35.2%

Roma win: 30.3%

Predicted: Draw

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 57.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 8.65

More corners: Napoli (56.3% home / 43.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Roma

Yes

Probability Roma wins or draws: 66.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (35.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (57.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Roma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.