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Parma vs Bologna

Sat 07 Nov 2026, 00:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Parma win: 21.7%

Draw: 27.5%

Bologna win: 50.8%

Predicted: Bologna

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.4%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 44.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.12

More corners: Bologna (40.3% home / 59.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bologna

Yes

Probability Bologna wins or draws: 73.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bologna Clearest lean of the available outcomes (51% vs next-best 28%). (51.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Corners Bologna (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bologna win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.