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Parma vs Cagliari

Sat 22 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Parma win: 29.9%

Draw: 30.3%

Cagliari win: 39.8%

Predicted: Cagliari

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.7%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 44.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.26

More corners: Cagliari (45.6% home / 54.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Parma

Yes

Probability Parma wins or draws: 69.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Cagliari Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 30%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (55.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Parma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.