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Parma vs Frosinone

Sat 06 Feb 2027, 00:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Parma win: 32.9%

Draw: 33.0%

Frosinone win: 34.1%

Predicted: Frosinone

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.1%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 43.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.75

More corners: Frosinone (45.5% home / 54.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Parma

Yes

Probability Parma wins or draws: 68.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (34.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Under 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Parma win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.